ABSTRACT
Abstract Background. The sixty-day effects of initial composite interventions for the treatment of severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 are not fully assessed. Methods. Using a bayesian piecewise exponential model, we analyzed the 60-day mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and disability in 1082 severely and critically patients with COVID-19 between December 8, 2022 and February 9, 2023 in Shanghai, China. The final 60-day follow-up was completed on April 10, 2023. Results. Among 1082 patients (mean age, 78.0 years), 421 [38.9%] women), 139 patients (12.9%) died within 60 days. Azvudine had a 99.8% probability of improving 2-month survival (adjusted HR, 0.44 [95% credible interval 1, 0.24-0.79]) and Paxlovid had a 91.9% probability of improving 2-month survival (adjusted HR, 0.71 [95% credible interval 1, 0.44-1.14]) compared with the control. IL-6 receptor antagonist, Baricitinib, and a-thymosin each had a high probability of benefit (99.5%, 99.4%, and 97.5%, respectively) compared to their controls, while the probability of trail-defined statistical futility (HR >0.83) was high for therapeutic anticoagulation (99.8%; HR, 1.64 [95% CrI, 1.06-2.50]), glucocorticoid (91.4%; HR, 1.20 [95% CrI, 0.71-2.16]). Conclusions. Among severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 who received 1 or more therapeutic interventions, treatment with Azvudine had high probability of improved 60-day mortality compared with the control, indicating its potential in resource-limited scenario. Treatment with IL-6 receptor antagonist, Baricitinib, and a-thymosin also had high probabilities of benefit of improving 2-month survival, among which a-thymosin could improve HRQoL. Keyword. COVID-19; Azvudine; Paxlovid; Interleukin-6 receptor antagonist; Baricitinib, -thymosin, Intravenous immunoglobulin